Saturday, October 15, 2005

No scarcity of oil supplies before 2025 - Shell 2001

A scarcity of oil supplies - including unconventional sources and NGLs - is very unlikely before 2025. This could be extended to 2040 by adopting known measures to increase vehicle efficiency and focusing oil demand on this sector.

Technology improvements are likely to outpace rising depletion costs for at least the next decade, keeping new supplies below 20$ per barrel. The cost of biofuels and gas to liquids should both fall well below 20$ per barrel of oil equivalent over the next two decades, constraining oil prices.

Shell International, Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities, Scenarios 2050, written in 2001

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